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One Million Rupees Election Results Prediction Challenge to Astrologers

Federation of Indian Rationalist Associations

101, Noel Park, Microwave station road


Mangalore -575 006

Mangalore,

3rd May, 2009

Presenting an award of one million rupees to predict election results.

Whenever elections come around those who can predict the results and also claim to influence them have a field day. This election in Karnataka alone there have been estimates that about a billion rupees have been spent on propitiating various types of gods and such spirits to influence the victories of the candidates. This being the state of affairs we feel that we could put forward a challenge to such people to predict the results of the Lok Sabha Elections, 2009 and earn a million rupees. This is not the first time that we have given such an opportunity to people who have such powers, we have been doing that since nearly two decades whenever elections come around.

Subject to the conditions laid down which are stated at the end of this handout, we invite all those who have the powers of prediction by any means supernatural or otherwise to answer the following questions pertaining to the Lok Sabha elections,2009 and earn one million rupees only. It may be noted that many of the astrologers had wanted to know the timing of filing of nominations, the dates of polling, dates of counting etc. to be able to foretell the results properly. We are giving them all these opportunities to enable them to make their predictions accurately. However, the entries should be received by the last date specified herein.

All entries are to be sent to this address:

Narendra Nayak

13-9-1220/2, Vithoba Temple Road, Mangalore-575 001

Questions:

1. Who will be the next prime minister of India?

2. Which party, combination of parties will come to power? The name of the single party should be clearly specified. If a combination of Parties is mentioned each one should be named.

3. How many seats will each of the parties win? The answers should be in units- Ranges are not acceptable- correct to the nearest unit in case of single digit and ±10% if the number is more than single digit.

a. Indian National Congress b. Bharathiya Janatha Party c. Communist party of India(Marxist) d. Communist party of India  e. Samajwadi party f. Rashtriya Janatha Dal g. Janatha Dal (secular) h. Janatha Dal United i. Dravida Munnetra Kalagham j. All India Dravida Munnetra Kalagham k. Trinamool Congress l.Bahujan Samjawadi Party  m. Bharathiya Samajwadi Party.

4. The votes polled by each of the following candidates to the nearest ten thousand ±10% error are to be specified- range is not acceptable:

a. Sonia Gandhi at Rae Bareily  b. Shashi Tharoor at Trivandrum c. Varun Gandhi at Pilhibit d. J.P.Hegde at Udupi- Chikmaglur e. S.Bangarappat Shimoga  f. B.Y.Raghavendra at Shimoga g. Sheena Rai at Kasargod. h. George Fernandes at Muzaffapur  i. Lal Krishna Advani at Gandhi nagar. J. Janardhan Poojary at Mangalore. k. Murali Manohar Joshi at Varanasi

Terms and conditions:

  • Entries are to be sent in English or Kannada or Hindi.
  • One person is eligible to only one entry.
  • Entries are to be sent by post or courier only. Entries in any other form shall not be accepted.
  • The prize money of one million rupees will be awarded only to that person/s whose predictions shall be within 80% limits of error. That is out of the twenty five answers a minimum of 20 shall be right. If more than one person gets the highest number of right answers, the award money shall be equally divided among them.
  • All questions shall be compulsorily answered.
  • Each right answer shall carry one mark. No marks will be deducted for wrong answers, not attempted questions.
  • For any answer to be considered as right, it should be within the specifications mentioned in the question.
  • As already mentioned above the minimum level of marks obtained shall be 20 out of 25 for any one to be eligible for the award.
  • The decision of the President shall be final in deciding the awardees.
  • Only those entries that be received by the 16th of May, 2009 shall be eligible to be considered for the award. No responsibility will be accepted for any delays in post or any other reason.

For the Federation of Indian Rationalist Associations

(Narendra Nayak- President)

About the author

Narendra Nayak

23 Comments

  • Narendra, I doubt if any professional astrologer will send in their entries since failing to win this challenge can put them out of a lucrative business. However, If they do, can you please update us about the number of entries and results if any (without giving away any personal details) after may 16th?

    • Nitwit nastik, in all our previous election challenges we have given a press handout with all important and interesting predictions. They also had the statistical analysis of the results. The same will be done this time also. Please check out our previous ones on google or any other searches. Some professionals have taken up the challenge and have sent the copies of their magazines as entries!

  • Sir,
    Your challenge is very much appreciated. Astrologers are misguiding the gullibles with their tactics and this should be curbed. However, what if, some one gets 80% or more by fluke, or by coincidence of gambling predictions, does that mean, he is the greatest astrologer in India? Then, may be, everyone including the Govt. can contact him and get predictions correctly, and take action on all matters of the Govt., without fear or favour to the good of the people, without any loss to the exchequer. What do you say>?

    • Sir,
      The chances of getting these predictions by fluke will run to one a few billions and if that happens, I would not mind handing over my million rupees. If one can predict against such odds it would mean that whatever means they use must be scientific. I would be happy to hand over all my property to such a person and be his/her slave for the rest of my life. If you see the past history of such election predictions challenges bu us, you will see that the maximum no of right answers has never exceeded 7 out of 25. That too most of the times the maximum number of right answers have been those of non-astrologers!

  • All of you will be glad to know that as of on 9th May we have received 16 responses. Many of them from astrologers,priests and palmists. I am going on a tour of Tamilnadu and Bangalore and will be back at Mangalore on the 18th May. Will try to keep you updated till then and will announce the results after the 18th May as soon as I sort the entries out.

  • Dear Narendra, I appreciate your challenge to the astrologers. But, The same time, I would like to ask you, that have U found any science to be so perfect. All the sciences fail and only the Great God is everything for the actual fate of the universe. You go through the history, many a time the science has failed to calculate or exactly tell what will happen in doing any search or research, even though the researches are done based on some scientific rules. Then how can we consider, the astrology to be a perfect science. You must know that even doctors fail in predicting the ailment even after so many tests, this doesnot mean that medical is not a science. So , be patient and don’t challenge any science? Nothing is perfect in this universe and nobody is perfect

    • Dear Vinod,
      It is not my claim that ass-trology(pun intended) is perfect. It is the claims of the proponents themselves are for challenge. They make all sorts of fantastic claims and as you know, we Indians tend to run to them for every little thing and sometimes even major decisions are taken on their advice. So, I want people to understand as to how hollow their claims are. In my challenge the margin of error is for the accuracy 10% of the answers and 80% for the total number of right answers themselves. This gives a 30% margin for error and so let them show that they can do at least that much.

    • Attention all:
      Upto 12 noon on 15th we have got about 400 entries mostly from Karnataka but also from Tamilnadu, Andhra Pradesh and places as far as Bengal.
      There have been predictions by various methods including one from a christian who says he is the voice of God!

  • Your challenge is very much appreciated. Astrologers are misguiding the gullibles with their tactics and this should be curbed. However, what if, some one gets 80% or more by fluke, or by coincidence of They also had the statistical analysis of the results. The same will be done this time also They also had the statistical analysis of the results. The same will be done this time also results after the 18th May as soon as I sort the entries out.Then how can we consider, the astrology to be a perfect science. I want people to understand as to how hollow their claims are. In my challenge the margin of error is for the accuracy 10% of the answers and 80% for the total number of right answers themselves.This gives a 30% margin for error and so let them show that they can do at least that much.

    Reply

    • Asstrologers(pun intended) have already started trotting out excuses for their will be flop show. Some have said that I should provide them the date of birth,place and time for them to cast horoscopes of the candidates. They could as wall ask for my details too to cast my horo(rror)scope and get the answers for the questions which I ask!
      The post office and the courier companies have made good business from this challenge. Only a day more for us to expose them for what they are. But, let all be assured of one thing- guessing the results is not going to be easy despite the error margin. I am not a statistician but can say that the chances of guessing must be one against at least a billion or more. Again, that is because of the accurate answers needed particularly with the number of votes and seats, even though it may be with a 10% error margin. Again, to the nearest ten thousand gives them a even higher margin.
      Let us wait and see for a few more days. Today(15th) at 15.30 hours IST I have received about 50 more entries after the last posting.

  • Hi

    Here are my entries…

    1. Who will be the next prime minister of India?

    Manmohan Singh

    2. Which party, combination of parties will come to power? The name of the single party should be clearly specified. If a combination of Parties is mentioned each one should be named.

    UPA – lead by Congress

    3. How many seats will each of the parties win? The answers should be in units- Ranges are not acceptable- correct to the nearest unit in case of single digit and ±10% if the number is more than single digit.

    a. Indian National Congress 163

    b. Bharathiya Janatha Party 150

    c. Communist party of India(Marxist) 35

    d. Communist party of India 11

    e. Samajwadi party 32

    f. Rashtriya Janatha Dal 5

    g. Janatha Dal (secular) 3

    h. Janatha Dal United 11

    i. Dravida Munnetra Kalagham 15

    j. All India Dravida Munnetra Kalagham 7

    k. Trinamool Congress 12

    l.Bahujan Samjawadi Party 34

    m. Bharathiya Samajwadi Party. 1

    4. The votes polled by each of the following candidates to the nearest ten thousand ±10% error are to be specified- range is not acceptable:

    a. Sonia Gandhi at Rae Bareily 464,000

    b. Shashi Tharoor at Trivandrum 234,000

    c. Varun Gandhi at Pilhibit 367,000

    d. J.P.Hegde at Udupi- Chikmaglur

    e. S.Bangarappa Shimoga 411,500

    f. B.Y.Raghavendra at Shimoga 272,000

    g. Sheena Rai at Kasargod. 178,200

    h. George Fernandes at Muzaffapur 175,600

    i. Lal Krishna Advani at Gandhi nagar. 311,200

    J. Janardhan Poojary at Mangalore. 354,100

    k. Murali Manohar Joshi at Varanasi 413,000

    Regards
    Ramesh Tendulkar
    (link removed)

  • as I said let us wait and see. But, you guys are not eligible for the award as the entries should be sent by post only!

  • Narendra, now that the elections results are out, I cannot wait for the results of this challenge. Although going by the small sample of divinely gifted asstrologers who have commented on this blog, I have a funny feeling none of them got it right.

  • Almost all astrologers on this online forum are off track now that the results are out. their predictions and numbers match closely the opinion poll numbers and and not any astrological prediction.

    Giving them the benefit of doubt on astrological part itself, their numbers are off. Most opinion polls predicted UPA returning to power with Manmohan as the PM (pre announced by the center).

    The number of votes they have mentioned for each candidate are way off.

    Proving once again these astrologers and god men are nothing but dhongees’ and con men who can fool the idiots and gullible.

  • If you check the political affiliations of the astrologers, you will see that the majority of them are pro BJP. They were the ones who wanted to declare astrology as a science and start courses in universities etc. They also gave generous grants to those who wanted to start such.
    So, It was wishful thinking on their part!

  • why Astrology is a pseudo science ?
    Cheating and looting is on in the name of astrology even than
    UGC has introduced astrology as a scince subject in some universities ,to start with. many right thinking people scientists,scientific bodies and rationalists et al have rithtly opposed such a move as a laymen, I feel astrology should not be made a science subject for study as it is not proved science subject as per scientific norms/principle.It is very disputed subject as per its method and ideology.many astrologers like palmist, kundali, hastarekha ,face reading tero card card reader have devised their own rules and principle for prediction they are predicting hotch potch and ambiguous prediction which can be analysed according to situation and events after its occurrence.they did not predict clear and specific prediction with specific place, date and person where events or calamity occure which person will be died on what time and on which place accicent will happen.
    ancient Babylonians ,Sumerians and Indians studied the universe and could predict seasons and eclipses based on the movement of the sun and constellations.
    they discovered the zodiac and named several stars.these were based on years of experience and observation. Still they could not discover more than 5 planets,one satellite, moon, and the sun.
    mistakenly the shadows of the moon and the earth were taken as planets rahu and ketu. with this limited knowledge af astronomy the ancients arbitrarily built up the pseudo science of astrology. It looks like a sciene but is not a science as per its method /knowledge.
    The lacuna lies here .The predictions are based on assumptions not observations.Vague theories not based on strict reasoning and substantiated by experiment .the belief that planets known to astrology have influence on man sounds unrealistic. These should also have influence on us.The evil effect as has been propogated by astrologer during solar and lunar eclipse proved wrong and baseless .scientist did not agree with their view.peoples are forced to do baseless ritual on the religious and astrologers ground by astrologers.
    planets do not influence humans only but also animals. all terrestrial abjects influence each other in some way or other assuming that planets influence man only, does not qualify astrology to be a science.
    the fact that a large part of our population believes in astrology or calls it a science does not make it a science .In a country where a large section of the people are illiterate ignorant and superstitious ;whatever is said passes of for a science with meaningless reasoning and a few calculations.
    little effort is being make to prove or disprove it as a science. some discussions are held papers are written for or against it and the people’s faith in astrology is maintained.
    It is highly objectionable to permit such a doubtful and baseless subject in the masses as lots of cheating and looting going on this matter by astrologers taking the benefit of immense faith of the people in the religious matter .They did not do argument regarding these matter that’s why they are being cheated by themselves.
    some astrologers are claiming treatment from astrology for incurable diseases inspite of it is not a system of medicine.As per law of the land nobody can do treatment without having approved qualification and registration for practice.there is a law drug and remedies advertisement (objectionable) act 1954 to check such malpractices but government officials ,educated people and mediaperson also does not pay much attention.
    Being a civilized citizens of India we have to check such malpractices for the well being of our masses and country.

  • I recall the results of the astrologers’ vain predictions at the election of 2004, which were risible. The Indian Skeptic literally routed the ten top-earning astrologers in India.

    I consider Western astrology equally fallible and, due to the impossibility of making accurate and clear predictions, most Wester astrologers now try to present their statements as if they are deep psychological comments on the personalities of the dupes who seek them. They talk of astrology as a ‘projective technique’ which stimulates self-study into new lines of thought and much else. How it is possible to keep relatively educated people running after this pipe dream requires explanation. I put forward one such explanation (which applies equally well to many conspiracy theories and not least intricate religious doctrines) in the shape of ‘The Labyrinth Fallacy’. You can read my article at http://www.saibaba-x.org.uk/3/The_'Labyrinth_fallacy'_in_complex_belief_systems.html

  • It’s Dec. 2016. I’ll guess there were no winners. I understood this predicament yet nevertheless took up Jyotish with a couple mentors at Dirah. I found it was extremely easy to read Back into events; “proving” my delineations. However, those delineations fit very well with the events. But my life has essentially been the same for thirty years… with all of these life changing yogas and alignments. Interesting find here and am surprised I’ve missed it all this time. Again tho, it is Extremely easy to read back into events via alignments. So much so that it explains why so many follow it still. I can say that when Sani transited my natal moon (with fallen 4th lord) my mother died. There will always be hits so it’s hard to pin down without statistics. And yet this latter precludes some necessary ingredients so to speak.

    Now the above is similar to James Randi’s challenge regarding telepathy. This seems to be something different as I know telepathy is real, painfully real. Many know indeed and yet I’ve never heard of a winner never mind someone accepting the challenge. I proved with co-workers that I can tell what geometric shape they are thinking but it goes way beyond that. It cannot be forced and that’s the problem.

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